12/7/2020 - Possible Swing Trade on the ETF: TLT.
Notes: trading odds enhancer beyond theory & technique is experience & observation, including getting to know a symbol’s tendencies. Sometimes the 21-day EMA is immediate support & resistance for a symbol; sometimes it breaks & very soon later snaps back to it. That is how TLT has behaved since the end of summer 2020.
TLT has been in a slow decline. Periodically, it pokes above the 21d EMA. then quickly drops back below. Here we have a decent daily SZ above the 2ld EMA. So, if price pops up to the yellow SZ, we can have some conﬁdence that price will react as the zone and recent behavior suggests & we should see a profitable down-move. Can trade the ETF itself; or use a long put “to express the trade.”
There are various fears associated with trading. Let’s focus here on “The Fear of Missing Out”, referred to as FOMO.
FOMO takes on two distinct forms:
This brings us to FOMO #2. You’ve got at least a passable trading plan, but you sometimes (or often) ignore it in whole or part:
For your consideration:
There’s a good reason for that…
They are. Give it a try!
10/27/2020 -- Since June, energy has been down, down, down. It's been riding down our favorite near-term trend identification measure, the 21-day EMA. Where does it stop? There are certainly fundamentals with reduced energy use due to COVID-19. But on the technical analysis side, while oscillators like the daily stochastic & RSI emit oversold conditions, & price is at the lower daily BB 2.0 SD,, those aren't automatic reversal points. We want to see a well-qualified demand zone. In the 120/130m chart there are two a bit further down (yellow regions).
Mitch ran through analysis on the QQQ...Here are his findings:
The 21-day EMA and the 50-day SMA are 2 key metrics to see if the NASDAQ remain intact.
They are backdropped by the orange demand zone further down, which coincides with the 100-day SMA.
MARKET ENVIRONMENT NOTE: There is a political battle in Congress about another COVID-relief plan. Speaker Pelosi has set tonight at midnight as the deadline for coming to an agreement-in-principle about what's on the table now in order to pass a bill before the election. This is being nervously watched by the media & market observers.
Mitch ran through an complete opportunity analysis for possible trade on the ETF: SMH.
Look at the chart for specific comments.